Many (like Bozo, FYB and Killer) think that Sod's ability to hit big was the sufficient condition for his win and keep Fed on his heels. As Killer put it, Sod played Red Line tennis for three sets and shot the moon.
I'm in the minority (with Fed incidentally). While I think Sod had to play his game (hit big), I don't think that was enough to bet Fed. From the match statistics, everything was even except for breaks of serve. I think that the net gain of winners to UFE favored Fed (+13 to +7). Perhaps the forced error advantage to Soderling (+9) washes out those Fed's UFE/winner advantage for a measly +3 point advantage. In conclusion, it's not hard to guess that the difference in the match got down to break points.
Federer
Soderling
Unforced Errors
27
42
Forced Errors
48
39
Winners
40
49
1st Serve %
64%
64%
Aces
12
14
DF
2
5
1st Serve % Pts Won
56/76 (74%)
59/81 (73%)
2nd Serve % Pts Won
23/41 (56%)
25/39 (64%)
Break Points Won
2/7 (29%)
4/9 (44%)
Net Approaches
13/17 (76%)
18/30 (60%)
Total Receiving Points Won
42/126 (33%)
40/119 (34%)
Total Service Points Won
79/119 (66%)
84/126 (67%)
Total Points Won
121/245 (49%)
124/245 (51%)
A key point was set point on Sod's serve in the 3rd at 4-5 where Fed replied to a Sod overhead in the deuce corner (by the fence) with an overhead. Then Soderling hit a backhand overhead reply crosscourt to save set point. After a rain delay in which the umpires waited a point to suspend the match while it was pouring, Fed double faulted on his serve to hand Sod a break point which he converted with a FH approach shot.
Afterwards Fed had this to say:
Q. In any case, before the stop you had a set point, so it could have been another story, or he started playing flat?
ROGER FEDERER: Yeah, I mean, best of five set matches you always get chances, and I definitely had those at, what was it, 5 4, Love 30? I mean, he missed a forehand that was close to go up at Love 30, and then he had a forehand that just touches the line a little bit to go maybe Love 40 instead of, you know, 15 30. So that's obviously a big change.
The backhand smash he hit he catches with the frame a little bit, you know. I mean, that was kind of a hard shot to hit, I thought. That kind of shot from my side with the smash and stuff is very unusual.
So hit it well, you know. But he played aggressive and kept on coming. When the conditions got more heavy when we came back from the rain delay, he played well, you know.
That was a tough set for me to lose after having those chances and being up 40 15 on my serve when I came back.
One other consequence of Fed losing in the quarters is that he will loses the chance to break Sampras' record at the number of weeks holding the #1 ranking this summer if Rafa wins the French. Rafa will displace Fed as #1.
Q. As you look inside yourself, what is worse for you: having been beaten in quarterfinals and have no chance to win another Grand Slam title, or let the chance open to lose the No. 1?
ROGER FEDERER: I mean, you just take the defeat as it is. You don't think of the consequences. I guess most disappointed I am that I can't defend my title here. I really felt like my tennis was good enough to come here and do it again, but that was not the case today.
So it's more the disappointment in having maybe not delivered my very best performance today, conditions and opponents didn't allow me to.
And, yeah, then you move on. You know, you move on to the grass and forget a little bit.
Big Berd continued to show good form by triumphing over Head Banger (6-3 6-1 6-2).
Kudos to Franny who triumphed over Caro (6-2, 6-3) to earn her first semifinal appearance in a Grand Slam.
Caro gave all credit to Franny:
She played well. She played with a lot of spin. She didn't make a lot of mistakes. She played aggressive. She was playing better than me today. I was always one step behind.
By using a lot of spin, Franny actually beat Caro at her normal retriever-style tennis.
Franny will face LenaD who triumphed over a gimpy Nads (2-6, 6-2, 6-0). This is tough to believe after the clay-court season LenaD had been having.
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