The first act of the professional tennis season begins with a bang at the Australian Open, aka the Happy Slam. For years it was neglected because many players such as Borg and Connors refused to make the long trek Down Under in December/January because they wanted a longer off-season. When the event moved to the hard courts of Melbourne Park, it developed its own distinctive identity. For tennis fans in colder climes of the Northern Hemisphere, it reminds us that we can hope for summer where we can get to hit balls. Australia, of course, has a wonderful tennis tradition in birthing the greatest players to play the game in Laver, Rosewall, Newcombe and Court. Australian tennis fans are knowledgeable, and it's always a pleasure to hear Aussie commentators such as Killer or Stubbsie. Most importantly, this is the slam that's in the middle of the Australian Summer. No other major has an extreme-heat policy where play can be suspended because it is too hot. This Slam tests a player's stamina.
Tournament Site: here
Draws: men's singles and women's singles
Injured List: ReRe
1st Quarter:
Everyone, of course, is talking about the player of the year, Rafa, who completed a career slam by winning the US Open. He has also won Wimbledon and Roland Garros. If he wins the Australian Open, he will be the first man since Rod Laver in 1968 to hold all 4 majors at once. The Rocket doesn't think the 'Rafa' Slam should be called a Grand Slam, sticking to the tradition that one must win all 4 in a calendar year. Nevertheless, if Rafa does do this, it is possible that he may be anointed the GOAT despite winning less majors then Federer. Regardless of the GOAT debate, winning 4 consecutive majors says a lot about the peak form of a player over the duration of one year, but not necessarily about how they've done over the entire course of their career.
Rafa's quarter does contain some dangerous players, but none who could challenge him over the course of a five set match. In the 3rd round, he could meet Feli, who did beat him on the grass courts of Queens. Tree and Cilic are seeded to meet in the 3rd round, but any optimistic predictions for Cilic are bound to meet with disappointment. Tree's big serve does have the game to take Rafa out of his rhythm. They met twice this year with both matches in Rafa's favor.
In the other half of the quarter, Head Banger is seeded to meet the Mika Llodra, and Nalby to meet Daveed. There can be real surprises in this part of the draw. Kevin Anderson plays a very big game, and looks to be maturing. For another, the first-rounder between Rusty and Nalby will be a real cracker for sure. Rusty looks ready to make a late career push and claims to be in great shape.
Lurker: Rusty.
Semifinalist: Rafa
2nd Quarter:
Sod blasted through ARod this past weekend to win Brisbane, and won his first Master's 1000 last year in Paris. He is also a two time Roland Garros finalist. Most importantly, he is not overawed playing either Fed or Nadal. There aren't many guys who the ball as hard as he does. In his half of the quarter, it's doubtful whether Belluci or Curls can get past someone as confident as Sod. Belluci tends to do better on a clay, and it is always a question whether Curls will be mentally prepared, as he underachieved last year in the majors. Though Tsonga had the best result of his career in 2008 making the final, I wouldn't pick him to go further than the 4th round.
Delpo is making his return to the tour, and opens his AO campaign against Sela. If he gets past Sela, he is likely to face bags. But there seeded players are certainly in better form than Delpo. Melzer had the best year of his career (Wimbledon doubles champion, RG semi-finalist). Bags committed to dropping weight in the off-season, and loves playing in Oz. GGL beat Rafa down in Thailand. But most importantly, Muzz the great Scottish hope of the UK is looking to get past the finish line, and finally win a major. Muzz beat Soderling handily in the WTF in London. I think his rope-a-dope game, and his retrieving skills should be enough to frustrate Soderling should they meet in the quarterfinals.
Lurker: Melzer, Bags
Semifinalist: Muzz
3rd Quarter:
The man to beat in this quarter is the Djoker, who won the only major of his career here in 2008. With the Djoker, one always wonder how the heat will affect his stamina or his asthma. But he's bringing in a lot of confidence from winning the Davis Cup for Serbia, and he beat Fed at the US Open in a tough semifinal. The best years of his career are ahead of him. He could face compatriot Troicki in the 3rd round; and then Nico or Ljubs. I doubt any of these guys can beat the Djoker, so I'm counting on him at least making the quarters.
The opposite half of Nole's quarter is full of dangerous players. Big Berd had a break out year, making the finals of Wimbledon and semis of RG. Unfortunately he didn't do great since as he has admitted to struggling with being the hunted scalp. Reeshard might be returning to form that matches the hype of his early career, but he still looks like he plays too much defensive tennis. Playstation struggled last year with a wrist injury. His recent semi-final appearance in Doha may signal a return to the form that made him a dark horse last year. Nando, of course, had the best result of his career in 2009, taking Nadal to an epic 5-setter. The young American, Ryan Harrison, has an impressive all-court game, and is capable of winning 3 or 4 matches in a row at this level. But Harrison doesn't like like the only dark horse in the draw. One should also watch out for Kohly and Kei.
Lurker: Kohly, Harrison, Kei
Semifinalist: Djoker
4th Quarter:
Fed, of course, won his 16th major here last year. Two weeks with the flu in February led to a mid-season dip in form that saw his streak of 23 consecutive semi-finals appearances in majors ended at RG, and then a very disappointing lost to Big Berd in the quarters of Wimbledon. In the summer, Fed knew it was time to make a change by adding Paul Annacone to his team. The results speak for themselves. He has won 5 out of the last 9 tournaments he has entered (Cincy, Stockholm, Basel, WTF and Doha), and made the semifinals or better of the rest (US Open, Montreal, Shanghai, Paris). Even folks who are not Fed fans admit that he is the player that is currently in the best form.
In terms of his quarter, Fed doesn't face anyone that can probably threaten him. Opposite him in this quarter is his pigeon ARod. His compatriot Wawa looks to have more hunger to advance farther than the great French counterpuncher, La Monf. Fish and Samurai are likely to take each other out. Montanes could take out Fed in a clay court event like Estoril but not on an Australian hard court.
Let's face it. In the men's game for the last 5-6 years, it has been about Federer or Nadal in the majors. Only Delpo, Nole and Safin have managed to pry away a major championship from these two. And the rivalry between these friends looks to be swinging in favor of Federer. Some of the important adjustsments Fed seems to be making is implementing a rip and charge off of backhand returns, which helps his ability to handle the high kicking heavy topspin of Nadal's forehand to his backhand. He is also looking to hit the set-up shot to get the short ball so that he can take the net earlier. If Fed continues to earn a high percentage of his points off of first serves, he is the man to beat in Melbourne.
Lurker: Stakhovsky, Wawa
Semifinalist: Fed
Semifinals: Rafa d. Muzz, Fed d. Djoker
Finals: Fed d. Rafa
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