1st Quarter:
Caro has earned the dubious title of WTA World #1, without a Grand Slam. She is the #1 seed that gets no respect. She won a lot of matches last year, but underachieved at the majors (lost to Nails in 4th round AO 2010, Franny in the quarters of RG 2010, Kvitova in 4th round of W 2010, Bepa in semis of USO 2010).
Frankly she faces a difficult draw. In the first round, she faces a very good player in Dulkbag, who will be fresh after having a great doubles season with Flavs. She could meet Domi in the 3rd round, who beat her 3 and 3 in Sydney. In the same half of her quarter, she could meet ball bashers in Wicky, Mono or Jarka Groth. All of them on their best days can beat anyone.
In the opposite half of her draw, she could face very experienced players like Franny, and even more dangerous Allez Bitch. Unfortunately her best hope of getting past these potential quarterfinal opponents lies in Sveta, who has 2-16 head to record against her potential 4th round opponent in Allez Bitch. So Caro's best chance of legitimizing her status as the World #1 by winning a major lies in stepping up her game and beating the best. She's quite capable of the folks in her quarter, but beating an experienced Grand Slam champion like Allez Bitch is an entirely different story. In their only head to head meeting in Miami, Caro did take Allez Bitch to three sets, but this seems to be more a function of a first-time meeting than any real pattern to the match up. If they do meet in the quarters, Allez Bitch won't be surprised by Caro's tactics.
Lurker: Jarka, Socks
Semifinalist: Allez Bitch
2nd Quarter:
As athletes get older and past their prime, the competitive advantage they once had shrinks. In Vee's case, it has apparently so much that there is constant talk of her retirement despite the fact that she was the World #2 during the clay court season last year. The biggest question is her knees, where the only matches she had since Wimbledon were at the US Open. Even if she has recovered enough, there are plenty of players who can hit just as hard as her, and recover as many balls as her. This can be said to various degrees for almost all the seeds in her draw: Petkorazi, Kanepri, Sharpie, Nails, Rezzy, Dani and Vika. All except for Dani have a good chance of beating Vee. Dani, unfortunately, may have to withdraw from the AO because of a tear in her Achilles tendon.
Vee's best chance of making it the semifinals is to use her experience to grind her opponents down. This may be good enough to get her through the first few rounds, but it's tough to see if it can get her to the semis. Unfortunately, grinding really hasn't been a go-to strategy she has employed throughout her career, because the consistency of her serve and forehand can disappear under pressure. She could lose to a very motivated Masha/Kanepri in the 4th round.
Masha has had a long route of recovering from shoulder surgery. While many think it is her serve that explains the long road to her becoming a contender for majors again, I don't think that's the entire story. The rest of the tour has simply closed the advantages she once enjoyed in a big strokes and mental fortitude. If almost everyone can hit as hard as you, you have to play defense, which was never (and never will be) Masha's strength. Her loss to Caro at the US Open shows exactly the limitations of her game. An athletic tennis player with great movement can open up the court against her and beat her. Unfortunately for Masha, there are a lot of those on the tour these days.
In the quarters, I expect that she would have to beat the best between Nails, Rezzy and Vika. Vika almost beat ReeRee last year, but is vulnerable to having her movement attacked. Rezzy is dangerous when she can really tee up for her shots especially on clay. Nails always seems to play well down under. If she can keep it together mentally, it wouldn't surprise me if she repeated her semifinal appearance from last year.
Lurker: Sharpie
Semifinalist: Nails
3rd Quarter:
Almost everyone is picking Kimpossible as the favorite for Oz. As far as her game is concerned, there are no real holes: she can serve well, play great defense, moves well, and create her own offense. She's beaten other contenders in handy fashion (e.g. Vika, Bepa, Caro), and she's a three-time US Open champion. The hard courts of Melbourne Park ought to suit her game.
But she does have a tendency to go off the boil sometimes. Last week in Sydney she had a 5-0 lead in the first set, and apparently collapsed with double faults and errors to donate the title to Nails. Last year, she only won one game off of Nads. So the question for her is whether she can stay focused enough through seven matches to win her first major outside of New York.
And she will need to stay focused, because if she goes off the boil, anyone in her draw is capable of taking advantage. Lady JaJa is in the other half of her draw and is coming back from a disappointing second half of the year, and eye surgery. Kleybs will be able to hit her way to the 4th round, but then her fitness or her movement might not be good enough to go further. Aggie is coming back from a foot injury, is the mirror opposite player to Kleybs: not a hard hitter in the least, but counts on her speed and craftiness (esp. the drop shot-lob combo) to throw opponents off their rhythm.
On her half of the draw, Kimpossible well need to get past the crafty lefty MJMS (a S&V who hits lots of drop shots), and then get past either a resurgent Adje Gal or Nads. When she's not focused, it would be unsurprising if Kim would lose to Adje Gal (or even Nads). But a focused Kimpossible is simply too good for the rest of her draw.
Lurker: Adje Gal
Semifinalist: Kimpossible
4th Quarter:
Bepa is the number 2 seed whom nobody takes seriously. This, despite making the finals of Wimbledon and the US Open last year. The negatives on her part is that she only won one tournament last year, and a perfectionist like her has a well-deserved reputation for being too mentally fragile. On the other hand, you don't appear in two Grand Slam finals by accident, and she seems to have made progress with her mental game.
Bepa, I think will have to like her draw. On her side of the draw, she faces a potential second round clash with Bojangles who made the Sydney semifinals, and a third round class with Miss Berdy or Zakopalova. While any of her opponents can hit a hot streak and she can have a bad day, one would expect that under normal circumstances Bepa ought to make it through. In the 4th round, she is seeded to meet Pavs or Makiri, both of whom could give her a tight match. Bepa is the player who has done better on the big stages, and should be able to get through.
In the opposite half of her quarter, Aussie hopes rest on Sam who is hitting the peak form of her career. Unfortunately, Flavs is also in the same half of the quarter. Should Sam and Flavs meet, Sam's chances aren't very good as her head to head against Flavs is 3-0. Their head to head is one-sided thus far because Flavs has no problem returning Sam's main weapon: her kick serve. Sam's best hope of making it to the quarters is for someone to take out Flavs for her, and for her to make it past the hard hitting Kvitova in the 3rd round. In either case, I think the odds look good for Bepa should she meet Sam or Flavs.
Lurkers: Flavs
Semifinalist: Bepa
Semifinals: Allez Bitch d. Nails, Kimpossible d. Bepa
Finals: Kimpossible d. Allez Bitch
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