Wimbledon 2010 Prognostications

The peak of the professional tennis season climaxes at Wimbledon, which really needs no introduction. If Roland Garros could be called the dirty Slam, this is the Lawn Slam. Name all the old school stuff, Wimbledon has it: strawberries and cream, serve and volley tactics, whites, cathedral-like atmosphere, prestige, royalty (the Queen Lizzy is paying a visit), and even a poet. Then we get to see shots like this.



Tournament Site: here

Draws: gentlemen's singles and ladies' singles

Men

1st Quarter: Fed won his 15th Slam in an emotional victory over ARod last year, and is looking to tie Pistol Pete's record of winning seven titles at the All England Club. Other seeds in his quarter to watch out for: Play Station who is coming back from a wrist injury, Big Berd who may finally be living up to his talent this year (RG and Miami), Melzer who is coming off a solid clay season and Feli who beat Rafa in Queen's this year with a run to the final there. Out of these folks, Feli and Big Berd have the kind of games that translate well on grass with Big Berd carrying the confidence of a recent win against Fed in Miami. However, this is Wimbledon, and I expect Fed to be able to beat Big Berd in the quarters should he meet him.

Lurker: Feli

Semifinalist: Fed

2nd Quarter: The Djoker has never seemed comfortable on grass. This year, he's coming into the tournament with some serious questions about his game. Is he fit enough to go the distance of a five-setter? Can he close out matches where he's in control? Is his serve a reliable weapon? In the top half of his quarter, the most serious threat to him is Rusty who knows a thing or two about playing on grass with titles at Wimbledon, Queen's and Halle. If he gets past a potential meeting with Hewitt in the 4th round, he faces potential opponents in Cilic, Ljubs, Kohli and ARod, all of whom are dangerous. Cilic has obviously shown a lot of potential with his run at Oz, but he has not (yet) played consistently at a high level to prove he can make a deep run here. Ljubs is at the tail end of his career but as you would expect for any great server, he can never be counted out on the green stuff. Kohli was the only person other than ARod to take a set off of Fed last year. ARod is certainly hungry to win his first Wimbledon and is always in the conversation as a potential winner.

Lurker: Ljubs

Semifinalist: ARod


3rd Quarter: Muzz always has to carry the Brit hopes at Wimbly. He'll probably get to bow to the Royal Box on June 24 when the Her Royal Majesty plans to attend. Regardless, Muzz has to love his draw: Nando and Mosquito would be threats on clay but not on grass. Ali and Samurai have the kind of games that translate well to grass. Ali's chances seem questionable as he's recovering from a hip injury, and he is playing Wimbly for the third time in his career, having missed the tourney in the past due to injuries. Samurai is, of course, coming in with a lot of confidence from winning Queen's. Look for Muzz to repeat his semifinal appearance of last year.

Lurker: Samurai

Semifinalist: Muzz


4th Quarter: Rafa is coming off a phenomenal clay court season and is the pick of many pundits to win the whole thang. But Rafa would be the first to avoid premature speculation in a tourney. The tried and true way to beat Rafa on a fast surface is to take time away from him by hitting big. His potential path to the semis could traverse through a murderer's row of big hitters: Blah, Gulby, Tree/Misha or Sod. However, things might not be so bad for him as Blah and Gulby are dealing with injuries. This year Tree has shown lots of mental toughness with a game that goes beyond a big serve and is surely going to ascend the rankings this summer as he missed most of last year due to mono. Sod will look to show that his loss to Rafa at RG is not a return to the status quo.

Still, many of the reasons for Rafa's great clay court season do translate well to fast courts: he's flattening out his forehand more, looking to shorten points, trying to get to net, and defending his service games extremely well. And he's still the fiercest competitor on the tour today.

Lurker: Tree

Semifinalist: Rafa

I'm going out on a limb to predict that we'll see a repeat of Oz, because I want Fed to punch his teeth out in front of his home crowd.

Semifinals: Fed d. ARod, Muzz d. Rafa

Finals: Fed d. Muzz

Women

1st Quarter: ReeRee is the no-brainer pick of many to defend her title. That said, things aren't easy for her in her quarter as she faces bashers like Shrieka, Nails and Sveta. Aggie has been consistent but simply doesn't have the weapons to be much of a threat on grass. Sveta could be finding her form again after having a terrible spring, making it the quarters in Eastbourne. Nails is bringing in a lot of confidence from beating Shrieka in Birmingham in grass. But at the end of the day ReeRee is just a tougher player to beat at a Slam and especially Wimbledon.

Lurker: Sveta

Semifinalist: ReeRee


2nd Quarter: For a "pusher"/retriever, it's a bit of a surprise that this is Caro's favorite surfaces. She faces a tough opponents: a flat-hitting ball machine in JZ (and who has made the semis), Vika her brainless ball bashing BFF, the hardest hitter per bound in Glitter, and then Sam who hits the heaviest balls in the WTA. But forget tennis, Stella McCartney hasn't really improve the kit for their glamor gal on grass.

Lurker: JZ

Semifinalist: Sam

3rd Quarter: Lady JaJa was unceremoniously dumped last year by someone who supposedly had no weapons: Melanie Oudin who is in her quarter again. Even if she doesn't face the young American, her half of the quarter has potential 4th round opponents in Whoopie and Bepa. She then faces potential quarterfinal opponents in Mum Train who played great this week in Eastbourne, MaKiri who is always a tough fighter, Allez Bitch whom she has a poor record against and Nads who might get it together mentally to go deep in a Slam. Allez Bitch's coach considers her a dark horse to win Wimbly. And he's right. Her serve hasn't been consistent and her revamped game to be more aggressive is still a work in progress.

Lurker: Riske, Allez Bitch

Semifinalist: Mum Train


4th Quarter: It's no secret that Vee feels in her element on grass, having won SW19 five times. And surely she has to love her draw. While Franny is coming off the win of her career in Paris, her heavy use of topspin doesn't translate well from clay to grass. Shvedova is likewise coming off a great run in Paris but I would be surprised if she made a deep run again. Mono has made it to the finals, and has the kind of Seles-like game that can do well on grass, but her serve isn't the kind of weapon needed to win it all on grass. Klebs does hit hard but her herky jerky mechanics would be more of a liability on the slippery stuff. Baby Hippo isn't likely to repeat her semifinal appearance given that she's returning from an almost career-ending back injury. Peer is slated to meet Vee in the 4th round, but the moons would have to align for her to beat Vee (i.e. she has to play of this world and Vee has to play like crap).

Lurkers: None that I can see

Semifinalist: Vee




Well, I expect ReeRee to shout "Victory is mine" at SW19. Sam won't be able to run around her backhand as easily on grass in order to have a good chance of beating ReeRee. Vee has better grass court credentials than Mum Train. In an all-Williams final, it will be close but ReeRee's form is less likely to break down than Vee.

Semifinals: ReeRee d. Sam, Vee d. Mum Train

Finals: ReeRee d. Vee

Wimbledon 2010: Seedings and the Practice Courts

Wimbledon announced its seedings for the championships this year

1 Roger FEDERER (SUI)
2 Rafael NADAL (ESP)
3 Novak DJOKOVIC (SRB)
4 Andy MURRAY (GBR)
5 Andy RODDICK (USA)
6 Robin SODERLING (SWE)
7 Nikolay DAVYDENKO (RUS)
8 Fernando VERDASCO (ESP)
9 David FERRER (ESP)
10 Jo-Wilfried TSONGA (FRA)
11 Marin CILIC (CRO)
12 Tomas BERDYCH (CZE)
13 Mikhail YOUZHNY (RUS)
14 Juan Carlos FERRERO (ESP)
15 Lleyton HEWITT (AUS)
16 Jurgen MELZER (AUT)
17 Ivan LJUBICIC (CRO)
18 Sam QUERREY (USA)
19 Nicolas ALMAGRO (ESP)
20 Stanislas WAWRINKA (SUI)
21 Gael MONFILS (FRA)
22 Radek STEPANEK (CZE)
23 Feliciano LOPEZ (ESP)
24 John ISNER (USA)
25 Ivo KARLOVIC (CRO)
26 Marcos BAGHDATIS (CYP)
27 Thomaz BELLUCCI (BRA)
28 Gilles SIMON (FRA)
29 Ernests GULBIS (LAT)
30 Albert MONTANES (ESP)
31 Philipp KOHLSCHREIBER (GER)
32 Tommy ROBREDO (ESP)

The major departures from the current rankings are: Fed over Rafa even though Rafa is the current world #1, ARod over Sod and Playstation and Ferrer over Tsonga. The Rafa-Fed switch can be explained by Fed's record at Wimbledon as the defending champion, and is really not that significant at the end as they both get their own quarter. ARod's relatively high seeding is due to his status as the runner up last year, but he's probably crossing his finger's that he won't be assigned to Fed's quarter.

BTW, there is much weeping and gnashing of teeth over these departures from the ATP rankings. Some think Rafa is getting dissed. Rest assured, Wimbledon didn't cut a back room deal with the Federer camp: they employ this numerical formula (beautifully explained here): 100% of points from your ATP rankings + 75% of points from your best grass court performance in the past 12 months.

1 Serena WILLIAMS (USA)
2 Venus WILLIAMS (USA)
3 Caroline WOZNIACKI (DEN)
4 Jelena JANKOVIC (SRB)
5 Francesca SCHIAVONE (ITA)
6 Samantha STOSUR (AUS)
7 Agnieszka RADWANSKA (POL)
8 Kim CLIJSTERS (BEL)
9 Na LI (CHN)
10 Flavia PENNETTA (ITA)
11 Marion BARTOLI (FRA)
12 Nadia PETROVA (RUS)
13 Shahar PEER (ISR)
14 Victoria AZARENKA (BLR)
15 Yanina WICKMAYER (BEL)
16 Maria SHARAPOVA (RUS)
17 Justine HENIN (BEL)
18 Aravane REZAI (FRA)
19 Svetlana KUZNETSOVA (RUS)
20 Dinara SAFINA (RUS)
21 Vera ZVONAREVA (RUS)
22 Maria Jose MARTINEZ SANCHEZ (ESP)
23 Jie ZHENG (CHN)
24 Daniela HANTUCHOVA (SVK)
25 Lucie SAFAROVA (CZE)
26 Alisa KLEYBANOVA (RUS)
27 Maria KIRILENKO (RUS)
28 Alona BONDARENKO (UKR)
29 Anastasia PAVLYUCHENKOVA (RUS)
30 Yaroslava SHVEDOVA (KAZ)
31 Alexandra DULGHERU (ROU)
32 Sara ERRANI (ITA)

There are no major departures from the current rankings amongst the ladies. Safina gets no benefit from her grass court performance from last year since she's been off the tour due to injury. And, sadly, Demy is out of Wimbledon due to injury. Some might give Masha and Allez Bitch higher seedings but frankly both are on the comeback trail (Masha due to injury and Allez Bitch due to a return from retirement).

In other news, the Greatest Forehand Shanker is working on his inside out forehand.



He'll need that to avoid all those serves this Mallorcan Lefty likes to hit to his backhand.



Shrieka will need to hit a lot of running forehands as there's a whole new generation who've adopted her ball bashing style.

Federer the Therapist and Nadal's Hamster

He's such a sensitive guy. LOL!



Unfortunately, I already swing fairly heavy sticks: Wilson K 6.1 95s leaded up to 13 ounces and 6 pts head light. Even though the Federer-endorsed BLX 90 might be more flexible and have a smaller head size, I think hitting the practice courts might do me more good.



This cute commercial came out during the Aussie Open, which is around the time Rafa started using the new Babolat RPM Blast co-poly string. I tried it out lately and think it does deliver more spin but at the cost of less power.

Last Tourneys Before Wimbledon 2010

The men and ladies are together in Hertogenbosch and Eastbourne for the last week of grass-court tune ups before Wimbledon. To me all the interesting stuff is happening amongst the ladies. All the serious male contenders are taking the week off to practice at Wimbledon.

Eastbourne

Caro is looking to defend her title here using her special brand of golden retriever tennis.



Tourney Site: here

Draw: men's and women's

Men's Seeds: Nico, Feli, Simon, Benneteau

Women's Seeds: Caro, Franny, Sam, Aggie

Hertogenbosch

Allez Bitch took a wild card to try out her more aggressive game on Dutch turf. If she can get her serve consistent, she can win here and win the bigger tournament that begins next week just outside of London.

Tourney Site: here

Draw: mens and womens

Men's Seeds: Ljubs, Bags, TRob, Troicki

Women's Seeds: Allez Bitch, Baby Hippo (out), MaKiri, Shvedova

Birmingham, Halle and Queen's Champions 2010

In the battle of the ball bashers, Nails triumphed over Shrieka (7-5 6-1) to take home her third WTA trophy of her career. The Chinese tennis star earns a spot in the top ten again after a solid clay court season. Last year she beat Maria in the semis but lost in the finals to Magdalena Rybarikova.

Last year I made the mistake of being so happy when I beat Maria I forgot I had another match. And now I’m so excited if I had another match I’d probably lose that too.

Reminder to Nails: you are playing a tournament tomorrow in Eastbourne.

The Greatest Shanker of All Time fulfilled the first of his appearance obligations for the rest of his career in Halle and ended his win streak of 15 to Rusty (3-6, 7-6 [4],
6-4)

In the last several years, Fed's record on grass is 76-2 with his only other loss being the epic classic match against Rafa in 2008. But it's no exaggeration that with losses in the Spring to Bags, Big Berd, Gulby, Montanes, Sod and Rusty, Fed's confidence is not where it should be going into Wimbly.

Samurai owes Fish dinner, triumphing at Queen's (7-6 [3] 7-5). He becomes the first ATP pro to win on three surfaces in 2010. He's won tourneys on hard (Memphis) and on clay (Belgrade).

Fedal Dorkery

Today David Law regaled the twitterverse with Federer and Nadal dork stories.

Right then. It's ten years ago, Basel, and Roger has just won his first round match. I go into the locker-room, and hear what I can only describe as a kind of amateur opera-singing. Now this is seriously loud-singing, like a tenor giving it everything. Semi in-tune.

Why was he doing that? Because, like Rafa, he was absolutely buzzing with life and the thrill of victory. The more people laughed the louder the louder he sang. As his coach at the time told me, "He has so much excess energy, you have to let him scream sometimes."

It's made news that Nadal (a day after winning RG) hit the practice courts in Queens after doing a photoshoot at EuroDisney and taking the train from France to England. Even though it was raining, the boy couldn't wait to hit the courts.

Ok, so Rafa is in the locker-room. Rain-break. Everyone sitting around watching Wimbledon re-runs. Suddenly the tv shows the rain's stopped. Rafa sees this, jumps up, starts charging around the locker-room getting his stuff together, rounding up his team. Wants to practise. Now!

I just find such boysish (sic?) enthusiasm from a guy who has just won the French Open a fifth time utterly endearing.

Opening of Grass Court Season 2010

It's that time of the year: the, oh, too short grass court season. Yeah, I know Roland Garros literally finished up an hour ago but, hey, that's how this time of the season works: no break from clay to grass. The men are either in Halle or Queen's. The ladies are in Birmingham.

Queen's

Muzz will be looking to defend the oversized hardware he won last year to restore the hopes of his countrymen that he would be the first Brit to win a Slam in 150000 years. Unfortunately, a certain Spaniard who has a pretty good grass court resume is in his way.

Tourney Site: here

Draw: here

Seeds: Rafa, Nole, Muzz, ARod, Le Monf, Cilic, Head Samurai, Feli

Or maybe he's hoping another Brit will overshadow him in South Africa so that he can quietly go about his business.

Halle

Fed begins the defense of his Wimbly trophy in Halle. Playstation returns to the tour here. The Worm is entered but he just got married and is recovering from mono.

Tourney Site: here

Draw: here

Seeds: Fed, Playstation, Head Banger, Mosquito

Birmingham

A bunch of flat-hitting ball bashers lead the draw: Nails, Shrieka, Whoopie and Gilded. As expected from a bunch of ball bashers, all of them have had great highs and great lows. It's anyone's guess who would win here. Nails has played up (Oz) and down (Indian Wells). Shrieka's struggles have been well publicized (down at Oz, up at Strasbourg). Whoopie is an up-and-comer who looks like she is developing the consistency to live up to her breakout tournament (USO 2009) but has flamed out in other tourneys (Paris and Dubai). Gilded played great in Madrid but flamed out in Miami.

Tourney Site: here

Draw: here

Seeds: Nails, Shrieka, Whoopie, Gilded

Roland Garros 2010: Men's Final

Folks hoped that Sodal would turn into a close tight match. But given Rafa's form on the red stuff this spring, it's no surprise that the King of Clay returned to his throne (6-4 6-2 6-4).

In the opening set, the expected tone was set: Sod was hitting hard. But Rafa's phenomenal defense meant he could chase down a lot of Sod's bullets and use his heavy topspin shots to move Sod around side to side. Unfortunately since Sod often had to hit shots on the run, he couldn't his feet set to unleash his forehands and tended to make an unforced error. Sod went down an early break in 1st set to Rafa after he let a very volleyable passing shot go. On another point, Sod had control off an crosscourt FH, which Rafa got back with a BH lob. Then despite Sod's overhead to Rafa's BH, Rafa was able to get it back at Sod's feet with his FH forcing an awkward half-volley which allowed Rafa to volley it away for a winner. Yeah, I'd do a fist pump too if I made a point like that.

By the third set, it looked like Sod was mentally worn out from trying to hit a couple winners just to win a point (or his legs fried from chasing down Rafa's DTL forehands into an open court).

From the stats, Sod couldn't play a clean enough game to threaten Rafa: the net gain of unforced errors to winner clearly favored Rafa (-4 vs. +9) and confirmed my observations of Rafa's defense: el hombre was just a backboard. The key to me was the return of serve. Sod was having trouble threatening Rafa's serve whereas Rafa was able to get enough opportunities receiving Sod's serve and convert the break points.

	Soderling	Nadal
Unforced Errors	43	16
Winners	39	35
1st Serve %	51/91 (56%)	67/86 (78%)
Aces	7	7
DF	4	1
1st Serve % Pts Won	33/51 (65%)	49/67 (73%)
2nd Serve % Pts Won	22/40 (55%)	11/19 (58%)
Break Points Won	0/8 (0%)	4/12 (33%)
Net Approaches	14/20 (70%)	4/8 (50%)
Total Receiving Points Won	22/85 (26%)	35/87 (40%)
Total Service Points Won	52/87 (60%)	63/85 (74%)
Total Points Won	81/177 (46%)	96/177 (54%)

Since the Greatest Shanker of All Time had a crappy spring season (Indian Wells, Miami, Rome and Estoril) and failed to maintain his semifinal Major appearances streak, Rafa deservedly ascends to the World #1 spot.

Roland Garros 2010: Women's Final

Franny played freely with nothing to lose and served out of her mind to take the
Coupe Suzanne Lenglen back to her home of Milan (6-4 7-6 [2]). Franny played clutch by approaching the net to come up with the goods at key moments. As expected Sam served well except at key moments where it seemed she let up just a moment. She never seemed to relax and was broken in two of her service games facing triple break points. Franny is obviously late in her career (age 29) and this is realistically her only chance to win a major.

	Stosur	Schiavone
Unforced Errors	28	19
Winners	25	26
1st Serve %	42/65 (65%)	46/71 (65%)
Aces	3	6
DF	1	1
1st Serve % Pts Won	30/42 (71%)	35/46 (76%)
2nd Serve % Pts Won	13/22 (59%)	15/24 (63%)
Break Points Won	1/2 (50%)	2/7 (29%)
Net Approaches	11/18 (61%)	14/15 (93%)
Total Receiving Points Won	21/71 (30%)	22/65 (34%)
Total Service Points Won	43/65 (66%)	50/71 (70%)
Total Points Won	64/136 (47%)	72/136 (53%)

It was pretty obvious from Sam's concession speech that she was holding back tears. No, I don't think she choked either. Hopefully she can take away positives from this as she obviously has the game to come back and win a Major on another try.

Roland Garros 2010: Men's Semifinals

Ladies and Gentlemen: Roland Garros will bring you Sodal.

Sod took five sets to defeat Big Berd as fuzz littered the red clay (6-3 3-6 5-7 6-3 6-3). The statistical difference seems to be that Sod got more of his first serves in, where it was more likely that he would win the point. It was pretty obvious that Berd lost his legs in the fifth set as he could not put in a first serve in his last two service games.

As would be expected from two big hitters, the unforced error count and winner count was high.

	Soderling	Berdych
Unforced Errors	63	41
Winners	62	42
1st Serve %	91/145 (63%)	75/150 (50%)
Aces	18	21
DF	8	5
1st Serve % Pts Won	69/91 (76%)	56/75 (75%)
2nd Serve % Pts Won	27/46 (59%)	35/70 (50%)
Break Points Won	6/13 (46%)	4/12 (33%)
Net Approaches	12/17 (71%)	4/10 (40%)
Total Receiving Points Won	59/150 (39%)	49/145 (34%)
Total Service Points Won	96/145 (61%)	91/150 (66%)
Total Points Won	155/295 (52%)	140/295 (48%)

As expected, Nadal cruised over Melzer (6-2 6-3 7-6 [6]).

It's fairly obvious from the stats that Rafa was all over Melzer's serve and that Melzer could not get much of a toehold into Rafa's serve.

	Melzer	Nadal
Unforced Errors	32	24
Winners	29	37
1st Serve %	72/99 (73%)	65/85 (76%)
Aces	3	4
DF	2	4
1st Serve % Pts Won	41/72 (57%)	49/65 (75%)
2nd Serve % Pts Won	10/25 (40%)	11/16 (69%)
Break Points Won	2/3 (67%)	5/8 (63%)
Net Approaches	19/35 (54%)	13/19 (68%)
Total Receiving Points Won	25/85 (29%)	48/99 (48%)
Total Service Points Won	51/99 (52%)	60/85 (71%)
Total Points Won	76/184 (42%)	108/184 (58%)

From the way Rafa has been playing, the only question is how long Sod can slow him down from walking away with the La Coupe des Mousquetaires.

Roland Garros 2010: Women's Semifinals

The finalists are surprising. Stosur was one to watch out for but had to beat Allez Bitch, ReeRee and Lady JaJa. Franny was not really on the radar screen of most.



Kudos to Franny who outplayed (ever so slightly) a gimpy Demy in the 1st and only set (7-6[3] retire). I thin toward the end of the set she made the adjustment to hit heavier topsin shots so that she played excellent defense as Demy kept trying to break down her one-handed backhand. A real bummer for Lena who has been always been the bridesmaid at a Slam, but never the bride. The injury to her left calf that she sustained in her earlier rounds caught up to her and she might miss Wimbledon.

	Schiavone	Dementieva
Unforced Errors	12	24
Winners	12	15
1st Serve %	60%	71%
Aces	1	2
DF	2	4
1st Serve % Pts Won	20/27 (74%)	23/35 (66%)
2nd Serve % Pts Won	7/18 (39%)	5/14 (36%)
Break Points Won	1/4 (25%)	1/1 (100%)
Net Approaches	8/10 (80%)	6/7 (86%)
Total Receiving Points Won	19/45 (42%)	14/43 (33%)
Total Service Points Won	29/43 (67%)	26/45 (58%)
Total Points Won	48/94 (51%)	46/94 (49%)

Noting spectacular from the statistics side, as would be expected from a set that goes to a tiebreaker.



I was not entirely surprised that Sam terminated Lady JaJa (6-1 6-2). Yeah, that kick serve and heavy topspin FH does wonders on clay. WTA, take notice! When your second serve is a weapon, you really have nothing to fear.

	Stosur	Jankovic
Unforced Errors	16	22
Winners	18	9
1st Serve %	61%	74%
Aces	7	2
DF	4	1
1st Serve % Pts Won	25/31 (81%)	13/24 (38%)
2nd Serve % Pts Won	8/16 (50%)	7/11 (60%)
Break Points Won	5/10 (50%)	1/5 (20%)
Net Approaches	4/6 (80%)	4/6 (67%)
Total Receiving Points Won	26/46 (57%)	18/51 (35%)
Total Service Points Won	33/51 (65%)	20/46 (43%)
Total Points Won	59/97 (60%)	38/97 (40%)

From the stats it is pretty obvious that Sam was all over JaJa's first serve. It's a pretty good bet that in most of the points, Sam took immediate control.

Sam has been playing very consistent and steady clay-court tennis, and plays better offense than Franny. Tactically, Sam should adjust to attack Franny's FH with an inside-in FH or BH DTL. Franny will need to hope that her high bouncing topspin shots or BH slices can frustrate Sam. But none of that from Henin really frustrated her. From the way Sam has been playing, I think the Coupe Suzanne Lenglen is on her racquet.

Roland Garros 2010: The Other Semifinalists

In the match of the day, Superhero prevailed over ReeRee by showing heart (6-2 6-7 [2] 8-6). She played a tight game in the second set where she had a chance to serve out the match at 5-4 but let ReeRee back into the match for a third set. ReeRee had a match point in the 3rd set on Sam's serve but Sam saved the MP on an FH DTL approach shot that forced an error from ReeRee. One would have expected Sam would have wilted but she didn't. She came up with the goods even though she wasn't certain she would have a second chance to win the match.

After losing that game, yeah, things kind of stepped up a notch from her. Yeah, I didn't know if I was gonna get another chance.
That third set just kind of hung in there, and I was behind the whole time serving second. Just tried to hang in and wait for another opportunity.
Then I got one at 6 All, and thankfully I took it.

The first set established the tone of the match with Sam dictating the rallies with her forehand, kick serve and backhand slice. The backhand slice negated a lot of ReeRee's power and clearly bothered her.

Jankovic quietly triumphed over the unseeded Shvedova (7-5 6-4).

It was long five-set battle, but the more mentally tough Melzer came back from the dead to beat the Djoker (3-6 2-6 6-2 7-6 [3] 6-4)

Not entirely a surprise, as the Djoker needed to put this one away quickly or else he would have to depend on his dodgy serve getting him out of the fifth set. Which it didn't.

Melzer will face the Clay Monster who prevailed over his fellow Spaniard Nico.

While it was a tight three-setter (7-6 7-6 6-4), perhaps Nico could have taken a set off of Rafa as he did in Madrid.

Roland Garros 2010: Surprise Semifinalists

The biggest surprise, by far, is the end of TMF's record of 23 consecutive appearances in Grand Slam finals courtesy of General Sod the Evil One (3-6, 6-3, 7-5 6-4).




Many (like Bozo, FYB and Killer) think that Sod's ability to hit big was the sufficient condition for his win and keep Fed on his heels. As Killer put it, Sod played Red Line tennis for three sets and shot the moon.

I'm in the minority (with Fed incidentally). While I think Sod had to play his game (hit big), I don't think that was enough to bet Fed. From the match statistics, everything was even except for breaks of serve. I think that the net gain of winners to UFE favored Fed (+13 to +7). Perhaps the forced error advantage to Soderling (+9) washes out those Fed's UFE/winner advantage for a measly +3 point advantage. In conclusion, it's not hard to guess that the difference in the match got down to break points.

	Federer	Soderling
Unforced Errors	27	42
Forced Errors	48	39
Winners	40	49
1st Serve %	64%	64%
Aces	12	14
DF	2	5
1st Serve % Pts Won	56/76 (74%)	59/81 (73%)
2nd Serve % Pts Won	23/41 (56%)	25/39 (64%)
Break Points Won	2/7 (29%)	4/9 (44%)
Net Approaches	13/17 (76%)	18/30 (60%)
Total Receiving Points Won	42/126 (33%)	40/119 (34%)
Total Service Points Won	79/119 (66%)	84/126 (67%)
Total Points Won	121/245 (49%)	124/245 (51%)

A key point was set point on Sod's serve in the 3rd at 4-5 where Fed replied to a Sod overhead in the deuce corner (by the fence) with an overhead. Then Soderling hit a backhand overhead reply crosscourt to save set point. After a rain delay in which the umpires waited a point to suspend the match while it was pouring, Fed double faulted on his serve to hand Sod a break point which he converted with a FH approach shot.

Afterwards Fed had this to say:

Q. In any case, before the stop you had a set point, so it could have been another story, or he started playing flat?

ROGER FEDERER: Yeah, I mean, best of five set matches you always get chances, and I definitely had those at, what was it, 5 4, Love 30? I mean, he missed a forehand that was close to go up at Love 30, and then he had a forehand that just touches the line a little bit to go maybe Love 40 instead of, you know, 15 30. So that's obviously a big change.
The backhand smash he hit he catches with the frame a little bit, you know. I mean, that was kind of a hard shot to hit, I thought. That kind of shot from my side with the smash and stuff is very unusual.
So hit it well, you know. But he played aggressive and kept on coming. When the conditions got more heavy when we came back from the rain delay, he played well, you know.
That was a tough set for me to lose after having those chances and being up 40 15 on my serve when I came back.

One other consequence of Fed losing in the quarters is that he will loses the chance to break Sampras' record at the number of weeks holding the #1 ranking this summer if Rafa wins the French. Rafa will displace Fed as #1.

Q. As you look inside yourself, what is worse for you: having been beaten in quarterfinals and have no chance to win another Grand Slam title, or let the chance open to lose the No. 1?
ROGER FEDERER: I mean, you just take the defeat as it is. You don't think of the consequences. I guess most disappointed I am that I can't defend my title here. I really felt like my tennis was good enough to come here and do it again, but that was not the case today.
So it's more the disappointment in having maybe not delivered my very best performance today, conditions and opponents didn't allow me to.
And, yeah, then you move on. You know, you move on to the grass and forget a little bit.

Big Berd continued to show good form by triumphing over Head Banger (6-3 6-1 6-2).





Kudos to Franny who triumphed over Caro (6-2, 6-3) to earn her first semifinal appearance in a Grand Slam.

Caro gave all credit to Franny:

She played well. She played with a lot of spin. She didn't make a lot of mistakes. She played aggressive. She was playing better than me today. I was always one step behind.

By using a lot of spin, Franny actually beat Caro at her normal retriever-style tennis.

Franny will face LenaD who triumphed over a gimpy Nads (2-6, 6-2, 6-0). This is tough to believe after the clay-court season LenaD had been having.