Roland Garros 2011: Transcript Gate

The decision of Roland Garros to acquiesce to the International Tennis Writer Association's request not to publish interview transcripts is gravely mistaken on a number of levels.

Now to be fair, to my best understanding, ITWA only wants the transcripts not to be published within 24 hours of the match because these post-match pressers are their primary source while the news is still hot. Nor have they asked for videos of the post-match pressers to be delayed for publication. Roland Garros has simply chosen not to post the transcripts at all. Nevertheless a significant number of tennis fans are not happy with the Roland Garros (and the ITWA) for what is perceived to be the "suppression of information."


First and foremost it seems clear to me that ITWA does not have any property rights over such transcripts. The tournament does. And they have only acquiesced as a favor to them. Roland Garros' decision not to publish any transcripts at all (for now) is overcooked.

Second, the assent to the ITWA's request was justified as allowing official journalists to provide "relevant quotes" of the post match interview. Unfortunately, trust between many fans and journalists is not exactly at high point, because there have been numerous instances of so-called professional journalists who have made fairly egregious mistakes. Even more worrisome is the frequency with which quotes taken out of context and/or the quotes "used" to drive a predetermined story line.

Third, the players themselves should be protected. It is THEIR words that should be faithfully represented for all to see, rather than filtered through the lens of the all-too-human official media. Some players such as Justine Henin and Roger Federer have a speaking style which is more discursive. They speak in paragraphs rather than sound bites. It actually is important to read or hear what they said in its context.

Finally and most importantly, a historic tournament like Roland Garros needs to publish to these interview transcripts as they are a primary source of modern tennis history. Tennis nuts often go back to a website like Roland Garros for an interview transcript to try to recall what a player said often a few years back.

For views advocating a similar view as I do, see:

• The Stolen Word: Controlling The Transcripts
  


• The Silence of the Slams
  

UPDATE: Transcript gate has blown up to be a bigger emotional issue (on both sides) than it ought to be. I've amended my original post to be more reasonable and fair-minded to both sides. But the basic point is still the same: failure to publish interview transcripts is wrong.

Miami: Fedal Bromance Tonight

These two goofballs finally made their 23rd appointment to play each other in the good old USA. Funny, that the only times they've ever met on American soil have been in Miami (2004, 2005 and 2010).

They first met each other in 2004.




Then they meet in 2005 again.



The rest is history.

Roger: Look, what I remember from seven years ago when I played him the first time, I came back from sun stroke in Indian Wells after beating Henman, and kind of dragged my way through the match with Davydenko. I don't know how much I had actually heard about Nadal before that match.
I remember seeing him for a bit over a year, I think, because he had a breakthrough maybe in Monaco the year before or somewhere else. I knew he was good, you know, but he, I guess, surprised me to some degree that he was so consistent, so good on hardcourts already so early.
That really showed me he was going to become a probably world No. 1, Grand Slam champion, just a really special Spaniard who could not only play on clay but other surfaces as well. He clearly lived up to all the expectations. From then on it went; the rest we know.

It's obvious that they have a lot of affection for each other.

Rafa: When I go on court against him I feel it's a really special match, especially because we play always really important matches. That makes the rivalry very, very special. I don't know if rivals in the rest of the history of tennis played a lot of the matches, as many matches as we played. I don't know how many matches McEnroe/Borg or Sampras/Agassi played, but we played a lot a lot times. So that makes the match really special always.

Then they went on play dates in each other's country.

Roger: My No. 1 rival to me it seems is Rafa. Doesn't matter how many more times I'm going to be playing all the other guys. At the moment, we have that history and nobody can take it away from us. That's why the only thing really missing from us is a US Open match, I guess, and a few other maybe tournaments.

But we've played in so many big finals against each other and were able to play over four or five tough sets and have always shown a lot respect towards each other. So, yeah, clearly those are the matches I'm really looking forward to and hoping to play my best tennis.


If you win, great; if you lose, that's okay, too, as long as you tried everything and learned something else from that match after you lost. But I am planning to win, and that's why I have to be well prepared.


I think in the beginning, early on in my career when I became the world No. 1 I didn't really have that rival, and I was very happy about it. I was just able to win, win, win, and dominate and go on and lose, you know, ten matches in two years kind of thing. That was quite incredible.

So in the beginning I guess I struggled to embrace the rivalry I had with Rafa. Only later on I was able to say this is actually quite cool. Sleeveless, pirate pants, you name it, long hair, lefty, spins, more with the flat shots and so forth and double handed against one handed, lefty against righty. I think it all kind of made sense, and I was able to embrace it then.

I think we had some good times in the past, and they have changed into what it is today. Really respectful and helping each other for good causes, foundation matches, you name it, for tsunamis. We've done so many things together. It's been a lot of fun.

May the bromance continue!

What is My Game? Muzz, Sodemort, Djoker and Ljubs

Head presents a new series of commercials: What is My Game?

Wobin Sodermort says his game is classical just like his Prestige stick.



But we all know it's pretty simple: see ball, hit ball (as hard as possible).

The Djoker claims running every down ball and accelerating aggressively into his shots like the Speed is his game.



But we all know it's about flirting with the ladies: Caro, Ana, Petko, etc.

Old Man Ljubs claims to like extreme spin and power, but he's anything but that.



Muzz loves to surprise people with the variety of strokes from his Radical.



Yawn! Such a bore!

Happy Birthday Blog!

A belatedly late happy birthday to ye old blog. Its first post was almost a year ago on March 3.

More importantly, it's Spring time, and like the first buds of tulips poking out of the ground, the tour moves from (mostly) indoor arenas to outdoors in Indian Wells.

This happens in a cold indoor court in the middle of winter:



Not so much full of win.

Getting this close to seeing players practice is full of win.



It turns out the pros just love the relaxed atmosphere of Indian Wells too.




A toast for more shanked ground strokes! If a pro shanks a ball, you can too!

ARod's Shot of His Career

Every tennis player has a signature to their game. If you're a fan of the game, you can instantly tell who it is without seeing their faces simply by certain attributes such as their strokes and their movement. Andy Roddick, America's number one men's player for the last ten years, is marked by his consistency, grit and serve. This passing shot he hit at championship point through the hottest player on tour, Milos Raonic shows all the qualities that typify ARod: grit, determination, and a never say die attitude.



Andy: forget about the critics. The critics have never hit this shot. This dive is better than anything Boris Becker has ever done. It's one of a kind.

Australian Open 2011: 1.3 Billion Folks Cheer

Nails looked like she was going to lose it, as her normally flat strokes just could not get through the running backboard that is Caro the Golden Retriever.

Then she finally clued in, began to spin the ball more, and spread the court more. It turned into a physical match. Guess who was in better shape?

Nails d. Caro 36 75 63

I think Kim is still the favorite, but I don't know anyone who would be delighted if Nails made a Cinderella run and won the whole damn thing. I'll be yelling "Jia You, Nails" during the women's finals.



This post match interview showcases what a goofball she is.

Australian Open 2011: Semifinals Picks

For the women, I'm calling

1. Nails d. Caro because Nails does everything Caro does but better. She just needs to keep her head together, and all signs point to that


2. Kim d. Bepa because Kim can handle the big moments better and batten down the hatches despite a leg strain


3. Your Aussie Open 2011 Women's Single Champion: Nails! Because it would be awesome for 1.3 billion Chinese

1. Mandy d. Ferru: It's a hard court, it's not in England, and Mandy is playing calmer.


2. Fed d. Djoker: The last time the Djoker beat Fed, the Annacone effect hadn't fully taken, and Fed was looking too far ahead to playing Rafa the next day. He won't make that mistake again.


3. Your Aussie Open 2011 Men's Single Champion: Fed for the 17th time! And we'll see the him try to chase The Mighty Babes across Rod Laver Arena, and he'll turn into a blubbering dorkball that we all know that he is

Australian Open 2011: Bepa

Bepa easily dismantled Petra 62 64. Not much to say about this, and she's playing solid.
She has an excellent chance of making it to her third consecutive major final. Can she close it out?

Australian Open 2011: The Mum Train Soldiers On

Kim had an easy opponent in Aggie, as even Aggie's normal drop shot-lob pattern ought to have been nullified by Kim's speed and movement.

Unfortunately the close score (63 76[4]) was just the surface plot to how annoyed Kim was. On several points both players were incredulous that the match was so close. Aggie could not believe some of the winner she was hitting, and Kim just looked like she was about to boil over thinking "I'm not playing and moving good enough to win this tournament."

Let's hope Kim recovers enough to compete at her best against Bepa. She'll need it.

Australian Open 2011: Mandy Figures out ADog

The hopes of Britain's first major winner in 150,000 years continued as Mandy made it past a tricky opponent in ADog (76 63 67 [3] 63).



I must say I went to bed in the 3rd set, convinced that Mandy had the match in the bag as ADog was brain farting too much. But all credit to Mr. Pony Tail for making one last go at making Mandy earn it.

While I'm sure Mandy would have loved the challenge of beating Rafa, he won't be taking his match against Ferru lightly. His head to head with Ferru is 2-3 with all of his wins coming on hard court and all of his losses on clay. Mandy will have to earn it, but is surely the favorite.

Australian Open 2011: No More Rafa Slam

Rafa fans have seen this far too often. This time it wasn't his knees but his hamstrings.



Doesn't this make you want to hug him? Nothing means more to him than to feel like he could compete at his best level, and his



All credit to Daveed for playing a clean game and winning it in straights. Rafa is a gentleman and tried to deflect attention from his injury to Daveed. Let's just say it: Daveed did beat Rafa. Let's honor both of them: Rafa walked out on court, stayed on court and he was well enough to compete. He doesn't need any excuses.

Australian Open 2011: Bert Wins The Battle of Sesame Street

Bert only seemed to have trouble against Big Berd in the second set, and teased the ball basher into unforced errors. From the score it is pretty easy to see that Big Berd faded quickly in the third (61 76[5] 61). Bert will face Fed in a rematch of their US Open 2010 semis. Beware! The last time they met in an Aussie Open semi, Bert beat Fed and won the whole thing.

Bert had time to add a sponsorship deal for Petkorazzi.



Gotta supplement that meager income from being a professional tennis player.

Australian Open 2011: Caro Knocks Out Franny

You'd think if your opponent had just played the longest Grand Slam women's singles match in history at almost 5 hours, you'd have easy pickings, right?

Instead Franny took it to Caro, and raced out to 63 31 lead. I certainly thought we were head toward the Golden Retriever getting an old-school tennis lesson. But Caro stepped up, and started to take the ball a little bit earlier, and made Franny earn her points. Franny made 4 consecutive unforced errors, and suddenly we had a close match.

You may not like the fact that Caro doesn't hit a lot of winners, but then again she's very similar to Mats Wilander who had a very unflashy game, which was good enough to win the Aussie Open.

Props to Caro for digging deep and getting through to the semis (36 63 63): she's going to need to show this kind of play against Nails who will pounce all over her.

Australian Open 2011: The Fed Express Wins the Battle of Swisses

Fed is not the only player who has made coaching change for the better. Ewok his Olympic doubles partner and good friend hired Fed's old coach, Peter Lundgren to get the most out of his career. It has led to a quarterfinal appearance at the US Open and at the Australian Open. This year it led Wawa to handed out decisive victories to pretty good players such as ARod and La Monf, leading some media types hacks to think he had a fair chance of beating Federer. Of course, no one seriously thinks anyone not named Rafa has a better than 50-50 chance to close out a match against Fed in a Grand Slam, but I doubt anyone ever thought it would be such a decisive beatdown (61 63 63).



There was even time for the little wanker to hit another tweener. The fellow fessed to saying: I was aiming for a lob.




You know it's a cruise fest when the most exciting part of the match is Fed fessing up to stealing 20 Aussie Open towels (and counting) in his on-court interview with Jim Courier. Naughty boy!

Australian Open 2011: Nails Charges On

Workman like effort from Nails who beat Petko 62 64. Petko never really had any chance as she was constantly on her back foot because of Nails' footwork & movement. She's into the semifinals, and will face the winner between Caro & Franny. She has an excellent chance of winning the whole damn thing. Do it for China!

Australian Open 2011: Impressions on the Week Thus Far

Federer is more than just a beautiful player to watch. In tough 5 setter, He showed real heart to fight off a comeback from Gilles Simon who gives him trouble. For an account from someone who was there, see Dootsiez' story. You really must check it out.




You haz a 16-2 head to head record against someone but you're coming back from 6 plus month layoff from tennis. You would think you might be rusty, but you hope you're in your opponent's head. Well, not this time. JuJu lost to Sveta. Sob!



Coming back from a knee injury, strained psoas (groin) muscle, screaming in sharp pain ... Props to you Vee for coming back to beat your 2nd round opponent, Zahlavova, but it doesn't take a genius (much less your mum) to tell you that it's OK to give Petko a walkover. Get your health back, and take as much time as you need. The sport needs you.



Caro is the world number 1, hasn't won a Slam (yet), gets accused of giving boring pressers, but she's got real smarts. You've got to see the video of the presser for yourself. See transcript). Matt Cronin, you just got pwned.

Australian Open 2011: Break of Return

Yep, you read that right. What always happened in baseball finally happened in tennis.



ARad breaks her racquet returning KDK.

Hacking the Ball: Movement Can Be Taught

As befits a geek like me, I've been focusing a lot on my technique to up my consistency. But my primary focus hasn't been my strokes. Rather it's that under-rated part of the game: movement. Now, there's certainly a school of tennis instruction that thinks you should just do what comes naturally. One consequence of this school of thought is that the way to improve your movement is to play other sports like soccer or basketball as there's nothing all that special about movement in tennis. If you suck at moving in those sports, you're doomed to tennis mediocrity.

Yes, when a high-level pro moves around the court, it does look natural, you can always bet they've logged umpteen million hours drilling to move better so that it looks natural. When a tennis journalist evaluates a pro's game, they'll focus on the mental aspect (Bozo), how their play makes them feel (Tigs), the jugement de jour of their peers (Cronin), technology that they're using (JMac), etc. These days I suspect that if you ask a tour-level pro who has to compete against their peers, one of the first things they'll look at is movement. These folks have a post-doctoral knowledge that far exceeds the fundamentals of movement.

Why am I ranting on movement, that most numinous aspect of the game? Because many gurus have noticed that the key to TMF's balletic game is his movement. In particular the article I just linked pointed me to David Bailey an Aussie coach who developed an entire system around it. After a year of dawdling I took the plunge and invested in the DVD. Knowledge, I figured, is a good thing, and if it gives me a better eye for movement as a tennis fan, that's well worth it. Well, the Bailey system did that and helped me think much more deliberately about how I moved when I play.

Here is the basic outline from 10,000 foot view. Every point has a cycle of five parts (5 Rs). In the first part, you get READY by getting into an athletic posture (i.e. on your toes, knees bent, and butt out) by taking a split step of some form when your opponent contacts the ball. As soon as your opponent contacts the ball, you READ the approaching ball and determine what zone is the ball heading into. The zone the ball heads into will limit your footwork choices. You REACT to the ball by moving to it, decide the kind of ball you want to hit (forcing, rally, defensive, a winner, attacking or counterattacking). As you RESPOND with your stroke, you hit the ball out of a contact move with its corresponding balance move. finally, you RECOVER by getting to the midline recovery positon (middle of the opponent's angle of play) using footwork patterns, brake & recovery steps. The cycle then repeat itself if you haven't hit a winner or your opponent gets the ball back.

One thing to notice about this system is that movement is part of every phase. Most of the instruction I see on movement doesn't attempt to view movement as such a comprehensive and systematic package. If a player actually practices this system, they could gain an advantage of 0.5 - 1.0 second per shot over the opponents. By the time you get to the 2nd or 3rd shot of a rally, your opponent can be in such a disadvantaged position, that you don't have to hit a great shot to win the point.

One highlight of the system is that there are 15 moves that any pro could execute when contacting the ball at the baseline. Which move to execute depends upon the kind of the ball one receives and the intent of the stroke that you want to respond with. Here is a sampling for what one can do from the back of the court. Focus particularly on what their feet, legs and hips are doing and how they use their lower body to facilitate what their upper body is doing when they hit the ball.




Here is a sample of what one can do from the forecourt.




Despite the cheesy music, if you watch a professional tennis match, you'll actually see players execute most of these moves. And I can tell you from actually trying it myself, you will hit a better ball more consistently.



This video of Jedi-mode Darth Federer against ARod shows two long points that I'll focus upon.




At 2-all of the first set (0:43) on Roddick's serve, there's some very solid hitting for a 10 stroke rally. Fed hits a block return off a two foot pivot. ARod uses at two foot pivot to hit a topspin forehand down the middle to keep the point neutral. Since the point is neutral and Fed knows he can outrally Arod, he keeps it neutral by hitting a rally topspin forehand down the middle out of a two-foot pivot. ARod tries to establish some progress in the rally by hitting a topspin forehand to the backhand out of the two-foot pivot. Since Fed only has to take a few steps to get to his backhand, he hits a topspin 1HBH out of a step down pivot deep and wide to the ad court into ARod's backhand. ARod tries to angle Fed off court into the ad court alley with his topspin 2HBH. Sinc ARod's backhand has a lot of spin but less pace, Fed has plenty of time to track down the ball and hit a BH slice DTL out of a closed stance. ARod tries to take advantage of the open court (which Fed is already trying to cover with one carioca step) by hitting a crosscourt forehand out of a step down stance. Fed has no problem running down the ball and hitting a forehand DTL winner out of a mogul move.

Everything ARod did would win the point against any player outside the top 10, and on most points against Fed. It was Fed's slice that set up the winner. Because the closed stance comes naturally to a one-hander, it is easy for Fed to generate racquet head speed for a tough shot. Once ARod tries to respond to the shot, he plays a response that is a bit two cautious. Perhaps the same shot shot (CC forehand) with a different contact move (front foot hop) would be more aggressive and more difficult for Fed to reply to. Regardless, Fed's quick recovery towards the deuce course, and his choice ot the mogul move gives him that extra pop to accelerate the racquet. By the way, the mogul move is usually a counter-attacking move when you respond to an attack from your opponent that is not quite good enough. Even if ARod had gotten to Fed's shot, Fed's mogul had already set him up for a perfect recovery towards the ad court.

Again there is some very solid hitting in the next game, but I conclude that Fed's movement is what gives him a crucial advantage over ARod. ARod wide ad serve successfully angles Fed off court, which Fed chips out of a closed pivot. ARod immediately tries to take control of the point with an inside in forehand out of a low spin. Fed has to neutralize this with reverse forehand into the middle out of a lateral hop. ARod hesitates a bit going forward, and opts to hit an inside out forehand out of a high spin to the around the midpoint of the ad service box. The point now neutral and Fed can hit a rally backhand out of semi closed stance down the middle. ARod hits an inside-in FH out of a high spin to the deep deuce court corner. Fed hits his second forehand out of a lateral hop (but it's the windshield wiper) out of a lateral hop to the middle of the baseline. ARod tries to hit a forcing inside out forehand out of a lateral transfer move where the shot lands in the middle of ad no-man's land. Fed hits one of his signature finesse shots, a chip backhand cross court, of a closed stance, which is the gambit move to bring ARod in. ARod takes the bait and hits an inside in forehand out of a step down pivot but the ball doesn't quite have enough weight behind it. Fed has no trouble running down the ball and passing ARod cross court with a reverse forehand out of a mogul move.

You can repeat the analysis of the last point for this point. ARod did everything right which would work against almost any player, but not against Fed. Fed not only knows that his slice troubles ARod, but because ARod's transition movement is tentative (he choses a less aggressive and "safer" contact move off of approach shots), Fed has an excellent chance of passing ARod. And again the pass is off of the contact move that best fits the situation.

I hope both of these point analyses takes away some of the mystery behind modern tennis movement. If this doesn't help you become a better tennis player, I hope it makes you a better fan.

Australian Open 2011 Prognostications (Women)

1st Quarter:



Caro has earned the dubious title of WTA World #1, without a Grand Slam. She is the #1 seed that gets no respect. She won a lot of matches last year, but underachieved at the majors (lost to Nails in 4th round AO 2010, Franny in the quarters of RG 2010, Kvitova in 4th round of W 2010, Bepa in semis of USO 2010).

Frankly she faces a difficult draw. In the first round, she faces a very good player in Dulkbag, who will be fresh after having a great doubles season with Flavs. She could meet Domi in the 3rd round, who beat her 3 and 3 in Sydney. In the same half of her quarter, she could meet ball bashers in Wicky, Mono or Jarka Groth. All of them on their best days can beat anyone.

In the opposite half of her draw, she could face very experienced players like Franny, and even more dangerous Allez Bitch. Unfortunately her best hope of getting past these potential quarterfinal opponents lies in Sveta, who has 2-16 head to record against her potential 4th round opponent in Allez Bitch. So Caro's best chance of legitimizing her status as the World #1 by winning a major lies in stepping up her game and beating the best. She's quite capable of the folks in her quarter, but beating an experienced Grand Slam champion like Allez Bitch is an entirely different story. In their only head to head meeting in Miami, Caro did take Allez Bitch to three sets, but this seems to be more a function of a first-time meeting than any real pattern to the match up. If they do meet in the quarters, Allez Bitch won't be surprised by Caro's tactics.


Lurker: Jarka, Socks

Semifinalist: Allez Bitch

2nd Quarter:



As athletes get older and past their prime, the competitive advantage they once had shrinks. In Vee's case, it has apparently so much that there is constant talk of her retirement despite the fact that she was the World #2 during the clay court season last year. The biggest question is her knees, where the only matches she had since Wimbledon were at the US Open. Even if she has recovered enough, there are plenty of players who can hit just as hard as her, and recover as many balls as her. This can be said to various degrees for almost all the seeds in her draw: Petkorazi, Kanepri, Sharpie, Nails, Rezzy, Dani and Vika. All except for Dani have a good chance of beating Vee. Dani, unfortunately, may have to withdraw from the AO because of a tear in her Achilles tendon.

Vee's best chance of making it the semifinals is to use her experience to grind her opponents down. This may be good enough to get her through the first few rounds, but it's tough to see if it can get her to the semis. Unfortunately, grinding really hasn't been a go-to strategy she has employed throughout her career, because the consistency of her serve and forehand can disappear under pressure. She could lose to a very motivated Masha/Kanepri in the 4th round.

Masha has had a long route of recovering from shoulder surgery. While many think it is her serve that explains the long road to her becoming a contender for majors again, I don't think that's the entire story. The rest of the tour has simply closed the advantages she once enjoyed in a big strokes and mental fortitude. If almost everyone can hit as hard as you, you have to play defense, which was never (and never will be) Masha's strength. Her loss to Caro at the US Open shows exactly the limitations of her game. An athletic tennis player with great movement can open up the court against her and beat her. Unfortunately for Masha, there are a lot of those on the tour these days.

In the quarters, I expect that she would have to beat the best between Nails, Rezzy and Vika. Vika almost beat ReeRee last year, but is vulnerable to having her movement attacked. Rezzy is dangerous when she can really tee up for her shots especially on clay. Nails always seems to play well down under. If she can keep it together mentally, it wouldn't surprise me if she repeated her semifinal appearance from last year.

Lurker: Sharpie

Semifinalist: Nails


3rd Quarter:



Almost everyone is picking Kimpossible as the favorite for Oz. As far as her game is concerned, there are no real holes: she can serve well, play great defense, moves well, and create her own offense. She's beaten other contenders in handy fashion (e.g. Vika, Bepa, Caro), and she's a three-time US Open champion. The hard courts of Melbourne Park ought to suit her game.

But she does have a tendency to go off the boil sometimes. Last week in Sydney she had a 5-0 lead in the first set, and apparently collapsed with double faults and errors to donate the title to Nails. Last year, she only won one game off of Nads. So the question for her is whether she can stay focused enough through seven matches to win her first major outside of New York.

And she will need to stay focused, because if she goes off the boil, anyone in her draw is capable of taking advantage. Lady JaJa is in the other half of her draw and is coming back from a disappointing second half of the year, and eye surgery. Kleybs will be able to hit her way to the 4th round, but then her fitness or her movement might not be good enough to go further. Aggie is coming back from a foot injury, is the mirror opposite player to Kleybs: not a hard hitter in the least, but counts on her speed and craftiness (esp. the drop shot-lob combo) to throw opponents off their rhythm.

On her half of the draw, Kimpossible well need to get past the crafty lefty MJMS (a S&V who hits lots of drop shots), and then get past either a resurgent Adje Gal or Nads. When she's not focused, it would be unsurprising if Kim would lose to Adje Gal (or even Nads). But a focused Kimpossible is simply too good for the rest of her draw.

Lurker: Adje Gal

Semifinalist: Kimpossible


4th Quarter:



Bepa is the number 2 seed whom nobody takes seriously. This, despite making the finals of Wimbledon and the US Open last year. The negatives on her part is that she only won one tournament last year, and a perfectionist like her has a well-deserved reputation for being too mentally fragile. On the other hand, you don't appear in two Grand Slam finals by accident, and she seems to have made progress with her mental game.

Bepa, I think will have to like her draw. On her side of the draw, she faces a potential second round clash with Bojangles who made the Sydney semifinals, and a third round class with Miss Berdy or Zakopalova. While any of her opponents can hit a hot streak and she can have a bad day, one would expect that under normal circumstances Bepa ought to make it through. In the 4th round, she is seeded to meet Pavs or Makiri, both of whom could give her a tight match. Bepa is the player who has done better on the big stages, and should be able to get through.

In the opposite half of her quarter, Aussie hopes rest on Sam who is hitting the peak form of her career. Unfortunately, Flavs is also in the same half of the quarter. Should Sam and Flavs meet, Sam's chances aren't very good as her head to head against Flavs is 3-0. Their head to head is one-sided thus far because Flavs has no problem returning Sam's main weapon: her kick serve. Sam's best hope of making it to the quarters is for someone to take out Flavs for her, and for her to make it past the hard hitting Kvitova in the 3rd round. In either case, I think the odds look good for Bepa should she meet Sam or Flavs.


Lurkers: Flavs

Semifinalist: Bepa


Semifinals: Allez Bitch d. Nails, Kimpossible d. Bepa

Finals: Kimpossible d. Allez Bitch

Australian Open 2011 Prognostications (Men)

The first act of the professional tennis season begins with a bang at the Australian Open, aka the Happy Slam. For years it was neglected because many players such as Borg and Connors refused to make the long trek Down Under in December/January because they wanted a longer off-season. When the event moved to the hard courts of Melbourne Park, it developed its own distinctive identity. For tennis fans in colder climes of the Northern Hemisphere, it reminds us that we can hope for summer where we can get to hit balls. Australia, of course, has a wonderful tennis tradition in birthing the greatest players to play the game in Laver, Rosewall, Newcombe and Court. Australian tennis fans are knowledgeable, and it's always a pleasure to hear Aussie commentators such as Killer or Stubbsie. Most importantly, this is the slam that's in the middle of the Australian Summer. No other major has an extreme-heat policy where play can be suspended because it is too hot. This Slam tests a player's stamina.

Tournament Site: here

Draws: men's singles and women's singles

Injured List: ReRe

1st Quarter:



Everyone, of course, is talking about the player of the year, Rafa, who completed a career slam by winning the US Open. He has also won Wimbledon and Roland Garros. If he wins the Australian Open, he will be the first man since Rod Laver in 1968 to hold all 4 majors at once. The Rocket doesn't think the 'Rafa' Slam should be called a Grand Slam, sticking to the tradition that one must win all 4 in a calendar year. Nevertheless, if Rafa does do this, it is possible that he may be anointed the GOAT despite winning less majors then Federer. Regardless of the GOAT debate, winning 4 consecutive majors says a lot about the peak form of a player over the duration of one year, but not necessarily about how they've done over the entire course of their career.

Rafa's quarter does contain some dangerous players, but none who could challenge him over the course of a five set match. In the 3rd round, he could meet Feli, who did beat him on the grass courts of Queens. Tree and Cilic are seeded to meet in the 3rd round, but any optimistic predictions for Cilic are bound to meet with disappointment. Tree's big serve does have the game to take Rafa out of his rhythm. They met twice this year with both matches in Rafa's favor.

In the other half of the quarter, Head Banger is seeded to meet the Mika Llodra, and Nalby to meet Daveed. There can be real surprises in this part of the draw. Kevin Anderson plays a very big game, and looks to be maturing. For another, the first-rounder between Rusty and Nalby will be a real cracker for sure. Rusty looks ready to make a late career push and claims to be in great shape.

Lurker: Rusty.

Semifinalist: Rafa


2nd Quarter:




Sod blasted through ARod this past weekend to win Brisbane, and won his first Master's 1000 last year in Paris. He is also a two time Roland Garros finalist. Most importantly, he is not overawed playing either Fed or Nadal. There aren't many guys who the ball as hard as he does. In his half of the quarter, it's doubtful whether Belluci or Curls can get past someone as confident as Sod. Belluci tends to do better on a clay, and it is always a question whether Curls will be mentally prepared, as he underachieved last year in the majors. Though Tsonga had the best result of his career in 2008 making the final, I wouldn't pick him to go further than the 4th round.

Delpo is making his return to the tour, and opens his AO campaign against Sela. If he gets past Sela, he is likely to face bags. But there seeded players are certainly in better form than Delpo. Melzer had the best year of his career (Wimbledon doubles champion, RG semi-finalist). Bags committed to dropping weight in the off-season, and loves playing in Oz. GGL beat Rafa down in Thailand. But most importantly, Muzz the great Scottish hope of the UK is looking to get past the finish line, and finally win a major. Muzz beat Soderling handily in the WTF in London. I think his rope-a-dope game, and his retrieving skills should be enough to frustrate Soderling should they meet in the quarterfinals.


Lurker: Melzer, Bags

Semifinalist: Muzz


3rd Quarter:



The man to beat in this quarter is the Djoker, who won the only major of his career here in 2008. With the Djoker, one always wonder how the heat will affect his stamina or his asthma. But he's bringing in a lot of confidence from winning the Davis Cup for Serbia, and he beat Fed at the US Open in a tough semifinal. The best years of his career are ahead of him. He could face compatriot Troicki in the 3rd round; and then Nico or Ljubs. I doubt any of these guys can beat the Djoker, so I'm counting on him at least making the quarters.

The opposite half of Nole's quarter is full of dangerous players. Big Berd had a break out year, making the finals of Wimbledon and semis of RG. Unfortunately he didn't do great since as he has admitted to struggling with being the hunted scalp. Reeshard might be returning to form that matches the hype of his early career, but he still looks like he plays too much defensive tennis. Playstation struggled last year with a wrist injury. His recent semi-final appearance in Doha may signal a return to the form that made him a dark horse last year. Nando, of course, had the best result of his career in 2009, taking Nadal to an epic 5-setter. The young American, Ryan Harrison, has an impressive all-court game, and is capable of winning 3 or 4 matches in a row at this level. But Harrison doesn't like like the only dark horse in the draw. One should also watch out for Kohly and Kei.


Lurker: Kohly, Harrison, Kei

Semifinalist: Djoker


4th Quarter:



Fed, of course, won his 16th major here last year. Two weeks with the flu in February led to a mid-season dip in form that saw his streak of 23 consecutive semi-finals appearances in majors ended at RG, and then a very disappointing lost to Big Berd in the quarters of Wimbledon. In the summer, Fed knew it was time to make a change by adding Paul Annacone to his team. The results speak for themselves. He has won 5 out of the last 9 tournaments he has entered (Cincy, Stockholm, Basel, WTF and Doha), and made the semifinals or better of the rest (US Open, Montreal, Shanghai, Paris). Even folks who are not Fed fans admit that he is the player that is currently in the best form.

In terms of his quarter, Fed doesn't face anyone that can probably threaten him. Opposite him in this quarter is his pigeon ARod. His compatriot Wawa looks to have more hunger to advance farther than the great French counterpuncher, La Monf. Fish and Samurai are likely to take each other out. Montanes could take out Fed in a clay court event like Estoril but not on an Australian hard court.


Let's face it. In the men's game for the last 5-6 years, it has been about Federer or Nadal in the majors. Only Delpo, Nole and Safin have managed to pry away a major championship from these two. And the rivalry between these friends looks to be swinging in favor of Federer. Some of the important adjustsments Fed seems to be making is implementing a rip and charge off of backhand returns, which helps his ability to handle the high kicking heavy topspin of Nadal's forehand to his backhand. He is also looking to hit the set-up shot to get the short ball so that he can take the net earlier. If Fed continues to earn a high percentage of his points off of first serves, he is the man to beat in Melbourne.


Lurker: Stakhovsky, Wawa

Semifinalist: Fed



Semifinals: Rafa d. Muzz, Fed d. Djoker

Finals: Fed d. Rafa