The final act of the professional tennis season climaxes at US Open, the Loud Slam. Why the Loud Slam? As one observer put it, it rightfully claims all the cliches about New York.
The Open, on the other hand, is brash New York: all that concrete and hardcourts and loud music pumped into Ashe Stadium between games and the hot dogs and beer, and the late nights. The tournament that never sleeps. They’re both wonderful events in different ways, with Wimbledon more like a classical music festival and and the Open more like a state fair.
While Wimbledon's lawns mute the sound of the ball as it bounces, the asphalt in Flushing Meadow amplifies it and concrete stands amplify the crack of the ball as it collides with the strings and the courts. While Wimbledon mutes commercialism, the US Open embraces it to the max. While the Australian Open crowds are known for their laid back and happy feel, the crowds at the US Open are what you expect New Yorkers to be like: intense and rowdy. It embraces all the cliches of American culture: the surface is on fast hard court (Deco Turf II) which favors aggressive play, strokes that hit through the ball, and big serves.
Of course, crowds have a good reason to cheer when they see shots like this:
Tournament Site: here
Draws: men's singles and women's singles
Unfortunately due to wrist injury, Delpo won't be able to defend his title.
Add ReeRee, Allez Bitch, Ali and Tommy Haas to the injury list.
With the form that Mum Train has been showing over the summer, she has a good chance of parading Jada around Arthur Ashe Stadium again.
Men
1st Quarter: When Rafa won at Roland Garros, practically the first words out of his mouth was that he wanted to win the US Open to complete a career slam. A lot has been said about why Rafa has had a tougher time at the US Open, but observing Rafa's game in the last year, he's been making the adjustments necessary to make it more likely that he'll win. His serve has more pop; he's flattening out his forehand more (more windshield wipers over the reverses); he's approaching the net more.
Rafa should like his draw. Assuming he gets past Gabashvilli and Istomin, he could face Kohli in the 3rd round, who gave him a close match in Toronto but then faded away. He could then face either Feli or Mr. Clean who have beaten Rafa this year (Queens and Indian Wells). However, beating Rafa in a 5-setter is a different proposition, even if it is on a fast surface.
Many of the dangerous players are in the opposite side of Rafa's quarter. Nando and Daveed are the highest seeds due to their great results during the clay season, but could definitely have the games to do well on hard courts. Curls and Fat Dave are the sleepers, and could do some serious damage.
In the end, Rafa looks to be well rested, and hungry to win the US Open, even if he could have done better in Cincy and Toronto. I would expect him to shape up his serve and backhand even if a few guys give him a scare on his path to the semis.
Lurker: Fat Dave, Curls
Semifinalist: Rafa
2nd Quarter: Muzz appears to have gotten out of the funk that began after he lost to Fed in Oz. After appearing in the Wimbly semifinal, he fired his coach Miles MacLagan, and has been relying upon his mum in the coaches box. More importantly, he seems to have taken to heart the constant advice that he needs to play more aggressively in order to win a slam. In Toronto he showed great form. Aggressive tennis a la Muzzard means hitting his forehand with more authority to either angle his opponents off court or to put them away on short balls by flattening it out. When he gets his first serve in, he can get free points. His backhand will always be a dangerous weapon. And his excellent movement means he will always be able to get back more balls than his opponent, and he has always been capable of putting himself in better court position.
He could face either Samurai in the 4th round, who wouldn't commit seppuku in the finals at UCLA or Nico, who has done better on clay than asphalt. I would expect Samurai to make a break through to challenge Muzz. In the bottom half of Muzz' quarter, Big Berd will have to hit great passing shots to get past Llodra in the first round. I wouldn't expect him to have to deal with Tree, whose ankle ligament injury looks serious. Head Banger or X-Man could block Big Berd's trip into the quarters.
In the end, Muzz is playing with lots of confidence. I doubt Big Berd's ball bashing will be able to overcome Muzz's defense.
Lurker: Samurai, X Man
Semifinalist: Muzz
3rd Quarter: Big questions hang over the Djoker's game this year: his serve lost consistency in the spring when Todd Martin unwisely tried to change it, and more importantly, his asthma/breathing problems have a tendency to flare up during tight matches. He's an easy target, but probably not in the first round as he plays fellow countrymen (and skit co-conspirator) Troicki. However he faces dangerous challenges in Bags or Fish. Even if he gets to the 4th round, he could be challenged by Play Station who is finding his form after a long injury layoff or ARod who beat him in Cincy. The cooler weather in New York won't drain the Djoker, but guys this year know that he's eminently beatable.
Lurker: Fish, Anderson
Semifinalist: ARod
4th Quarter: Despite winning his 16th major in January, Fed comes in with doubters, because of the relatively subpar performance (for his standards) at Roland Garros and Wimbledon. Making the quarters of a major only to have big tall guys like Big Berd and Sod hit him out of the tournament doesn't cut it for Fed. He could face either Sod or Cilic in the quarters. Cilic has disappointed since Oz. However Sod has had a great year, beating Fed at Roland Garros to eventually make the finals, and appeared in the quarters at Wimbly.
Fed has a fairly easy path to the quarters, where he might face Rusty in the 3rd round and Melzer in the 4th. Although Rusty beat Fed in Halle, Fed has been Rusty's albatross through out his career. And Fed didn't have any trouble handling Melzer in their first meeting in Wimbly. If Fed meets Sod, I wouldn't expect Fed to show any mercy.
Lurker: Rusty
Semifinalist: Fed
Semifinals: Muzz d. Rafa, Fed d. ARod
Finals: Fed d. Muzz
Women
1st Quarter: Caro is the surprise top seed. For all the criticism fired at her game (absence of a put away forehand and net game), she's mentally tougher than many peers in her generation, and constructs points better than the typical WTA ball basher. Life can't be easy for her as she could be hit off the court by Masha or Rezai to even make the the 4th round.
Even if she gets past them, then Nails would be her most dangerous opponent, beating Caro twice this year. On the hand, Nails could hit herself out of the tourney. Sveta is looking to get her game back together, but faces match up problems against MaKiri. Caro is capable of handling either of those two.
Lurker: Rezai, MaKiri
Semifinalist: Nails
2nd Quarter: Lady JaJa spent her junior years training at the Bollitieri Academy and should feel comfortable on the asphalt of New York. Her best showing was a finals appearance in 2008, but overall her best surface is clay as she has made the semis of Roland Garros thrice. This summer has not been her greatest on hard courts. Whoopie is looking to defend her semifinal showing here, but has been lacking consistency this year.
Aggie has been consistent, but doesn't really have the weapons to challenge the big hitters who hit a run of consistency in the majors. Bepa is having a great year, making the finals of Wimbly and Montreal. As long as she keeps her head together, a semifinal appearance is hers for the taking.
Lurkers: Kanepri, Nads
Semifinalist: Bepa
3rd Quarter: At 30, Vee comes in as one of the oldest top seeds amongst the ladies. With her power and speed, she is always a dangerous ball basher to get past. Unfortunately her forehand and serve tend to disappear sometimes because she drops her head, and she tries to blast her way out of a slump. Not only that she faces Pironkova who flummoxed her at Wimbly. Flavs seems to have found her game but doesn't really have the power to beat Vee. Neither does Shahar.
In the top half of this quarter, Franny is tired of living off the afterglow of winning Roland Garros, but it remains to be seen if she will break out of the pattern of getting beaten early in a tourney. Vika, on the other hand, looks to be fully recovered from the injuries that plagued her through the clay/grass season. Not only that she is playing better defense and moving better. She's due for a breakout that was hinted at when she almost beat ReeRee in Oz earlier this year.
Lurker: Pironkova, Flavs
Semifinalist: Vika
4th Quarter: Mum Train has had her best results in New York winning it twice. Can she do it third time? All her victories this year have been on hard courts (Brisbane, Miami and Cincy). As long as she doesn't over rush her pacing through a match, she has the right combo of power and defense to deserve to be called one of the favorites. Mono might block her path to the final, but doesn't have a serve that is not attackable.
Sam has never done well in the US Open. Part of the reason is that the surface softens the bounce of her kick serve, taking away one of her key weapons. Not only that, she's not the greatest mover and lacks the time to run around her backhand. LenaD on the other hand has always been a great mover with legs like a tree trunk, and doesn't need to cover up her backhand as a weakness. While some think she's in the sunset of her career, she looks ready to make a deep run making the semis (as we speak) of New Haven. In the end, Kim is a similar player to Lena D but with a better serve.
Lurker: Dina
Semifinalist: Mum Train
Semifinals: Mum Train d. Vika, Bepa d. Nails
Finals: Mum Train d. Bepa
Good profile of both draws. I like how you are not jumping on the Masha train like everybody else. She could do it, but her inability to close out Kim in Cincy raises questions for me. Not sure about Nails though reaching the semis. Do not count out Sveta, especially if she decides to go for broke on her forehand. Still it could be Kim's to lose.
ReplyDeleteMurray can win it if he stays aggressive. Rafa's in there but if he has to go thru Nalbandian, he could win the battle but lose the war so to speak. Gulbis is a sleeper if he wakes up. A-Rod's been given a gift draw but I think his buddy Fish might take it from him.
Thanks for the kind comments.
ReplyDeleteWhen you're Nike's glamazon like Masha, it's easy to get all the attention, and get folks to ignore the weaknesses in your game (no scary net game and shaky movement). The gals can hit as hard as Masha and return her serve well enough. I'll give props to Masha (and her coach) for working on her weaknesses, but she's a year away from being a more serious threat.
Both Nails and Sveta are Heckyl/Jyde acts. Great when they're on; terrible when they're off. It's a flip of the coin between them. I like Nails and I've noticed that Sveta has match up problems with Caro (but not Nails).
Hopefully Murray's mum will keep challenging him to be aggressive. Nothing like having your mum light the fire under your belly :). I'm not one of those Fed fans who despises Murray; so if Murray wins, I'd be the first to congratulate him.