The peak of the professional tennis season begins in Paris with the Grand Slam of the clay court season, Roland Garros. If Oz is the happy Slam, Roland Garros could be called the dirty Slam. And it's not just for la terre battue. Because clay slows the ball down, consistency, point construction and movement matter so much more. This can be mentally and physically taxing, demanding heart from competitors who want to succeed in the City of Lights.
Tournament Site: here
Draws: men's singles and women's singles
Men
1st Quarter: Fed the defending champ and world #1 leads this quarter. The big question is whether he can beat Rafa on clay to defend his title? While he's beaten Rafa twice on clay (Madrid 2009 and Hamburg 2007), he's never done it at Rafa's roost, Roland Garros. As was obvious from last year, this was one of the most emotional victories in his career. He may look as cool as a cucumber on court, but underneath that cool is a cauldron of emotions and a lot of heart. Not only that, Fed's head to head record is 7-14 against Nadal. If there's any knock against Fed being the GOAT, it's his losing record against Nadal. Regardless of the validity of that knock, Fed has some tough competition in his quarter: Sod who beat Nadal twice last year, Cilic who had a great run in Oz but hasn't done well since and LeMonf who is always dangerous on clay. I don't expect any of these fellows to give Fed trouble. The dangerous people are the lurkers: Gulbis who has broken out this season with great results in Rome and Madrid, Wawa who is playing on his best surface and Montanes who beat Fed in Estoril. Look for Gulbis and Fed to meet in the quarters but Fed to triumph in the end, because it's a Grand Slam dammit.
Lurkers: Montanes, Wawa, Gulbis
Semifinalist: Fed
2nd Quarter: Muzz has looked out of sorts on clay for most of the season, and is defending QF points from last year. You know expectations on him are low when the "Murray can win Wimbly" hype has already begun. He faces a tough matchup right away with the talented (but mercurial) Reeshard. Other seeds in his quarter are Big Berd, Jo Willy, Misha, TRob, Tree and Bags. This quarter is real crapshoot. Almost everyone is a dark horse and almost everyone is a favorite. I'd be surprised to see Muzz make it through. I guess Jo Willy and BigBerd will meet in the quarters with Jo Willy doing his dance to make his country proud.
Lurkers: Almost everyone except Muzz
Semifinalist: Jo Willy
3rd Quarter: The Djoker is at a career crossroads. he has undoubtedly struggled this clay season especially with allergies, and parted ways with Todd Martin in Miami. Is he mentally tough enough to find a way to win when he's stressed out (e.g. his serve leaving him, his allergies acting up, crowds booing him, etc.)? On the other side of this quarter is ARod playing his first clay court event of the season. No one expects anything out of ARod as his serve, his biggest weapon, gets muted on clay. Head Samurai, another big serving American, could actually do pretty well considering that he's made the finals of Houston and won the Serbian open. The safe money is for Mosquito and Ferru who have done outstanding on clay to meet with Ferru pulling through.
Lurkers: Head Samurai, Pico, Melzer
Semifinalist: Ferru
4th Quarter: The way the clay court season has developed, Le Coupe des Mousquetaires is Rafa's trophy to bite, by any sane account. By winning Madrid last week, he has earned 18 Master's 1000 wins, exceeding Agassi's total and won three consecutive Master's for the first time. Most importantly, he is injury-free (no tape on the knees), and better-rested (Barcelona went off his schedule). Despite this, Rafa denies that he's the favorite.
This is what you have to write in your articles and you are free to say whatever you believe. I won't say it because I don't like this tag and I don't think I am either.
I am very happy with what has happened up to now, I've got back to my best level and that's the important thing.
I was the favorite before (at the French Open) and I've lost, and then other times I've won.
Who knows what will happen in a week and a half or two weeks, there is more than one contender, there are many contenders.
For Rafa, it's part of his makeup to take things one match, one set and one point at a time. No one does this better on the planet than him. That's what mentally tough champions do. Still, leaving that aside and looking at the probabilities, he has every reason to be very confident in his chances. At this stage, everyone else (Nando, Gonzo, Ljubs) is contending to challenge Rafa much less beat him.
Lurkers: Nico, Kohli
Semifinalist: Rafa
Semifinals: Rafa d. Ferru, Fed d. Jo Willy
Finals: Rafa d. Fed
Women
1st Quarter: ReeRee has only won in Paris once (2002). Her struggles on clay are well documented. Fortunately the tennis gods hath smiled on her half of the quarter by giving her folks she can handle in: Mono, Shahar and Pavs. Her toughest competition lies in the other half: Masha, Sam, JZ and Allez Bitch. Masha's game has been off the last year and half (for more than just her serve), and expect her to slip like a cow on ice. JZ made the semis of Warsaw this week, but is not exactly known for being more than ball machine. The media is hyping up Sam to do good things on clay, because she's won a clay court event (Charleston), made the finals of another (Stuttgart) and made the semis here last year. While it's hard not to like a woman who hits a heavy forehand and kick serve, Allez Bitch seemed to figure out Sam toward the end of their match in Stuttgart. Allez Bitch's ownership of Roland Garros bears repeating: she's won it four times, she's won 35 consecutive sets there, she hasn't lost a match in Paris since 2004, she has an alley named after her, etc. Put shortly, she has every reason to feel that Roland Garros is her "private garden". While I don't agree with Bozo very often (his florid writing seems to mask his failure to do the hard work of actually understanding the game), clay slows the ball down enough for Henin's nimble feet to get herself into position to produce a dazzling array of shots unmatched by her WTA peers. If JuJu can tame her propensity to go for the reckless dazzling shot to play one more setup shot, Roland Garros is hers to win.
Lurkers: JZ, Shahar
Semifinalist: Allez Bitch
2nd Quarter: Lady JaJa has had a revival this year: winning Indian Wells and making the finals in Rome. She has a relatively easy quarter compared to ReeRee's and Allez Bitch's. On the other half of her quarter is Wicky who is coming back from elbow surgery. On the other half of her quarter is Agi who doesn't have any big weapons and Baby Hippo who is still trying to find her form after having back problems.
Lurker: NaturAna
Semifinalist: Lady JaJa
3rd Quarter: Can Caro the Bad Pusher make a deep run on clay? Is her ankle too banged up that she can't retrieve every ball bashed to her weaker forehand wing? In her half of the quarter are defensive baseliners like herself such as Pens, Dulgheru and Safarova. So fortunately for her, Caro's main problem until the quarters will be her ankle.
Most of the seeded ball bashers are in the other half of her quarter: Nails who donated her Madrid quarterfinal match to Peer and Sveta whose W-L record on clay this year is an outstanding 1-3. Both of these two can pull off Hekyll and Jyde acts: stunningly inconsistent one moment and then unbeatable shotmaking the next. Unfortunately Sveta's chances of defending Roland Garros don't look good as she faces MaKiri in the 3rd round who owns her. If Nails can make it the quarters, she has a great chance of beating someone like Caro.
Lurker: MaKiri
Semifinalist: Nails
4th Quarter: Vee's problems are like her little sister's. This is not her best Slam and not her best surface. Her powerful strokes are muted by the surface. At times her forehand and her serve disappear because she tends to jerk her head around on those strokes. When those go south on her, she tends to hit harder hoping the ball will go in, instead of employing some strategy to construct points (her coach's critique not mine). But despite those problems, Vee is mentally tougher (and more stubborn) than the rest of her competition. LenaD seems to have disappeared mentally for the clay court season. Hopefully she can get her act together in Paris. Vika has been struggling with a leg injury (and/or might be too preoccupied with her love life). This quarter has proven surprise winners in Golden Nugget (Madrid) and Maria Ho (Rome).
Lurkers: Golden Nugget, Maria Ho
Semifinalist: Vee
Semifinals: Nails d. Vee, Allez Bitch d. Lady JaJa
Finals: Allez Bitch d. Nails
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